AL Third Basemen Opinion

For my birthday a few weeks ago my lovely girlfriend asked me what I wanted and as usual I could think of nothing. After racking my brains she asked me about memorabilia because I’m always going on about things I want signed and one of the great regrets I have in life is leaving my entire collection at the top of a closet in an apartment I moved out of years ago. In there were autographed balls from Ted Williams, Brooks Robinson and Don Mattingly (who was my favourite player as a kid). Every now and again I still feel a pang of regret about leaving that stuff there, especially the Williams ball. So off we went to a memorabilia store downtown where I found an awesome Ted Williams piece that was way too expensive and a really nice Stan Musial piece that I would love to own as well but was out of my budget. As we were about to leave I decided to look through the unframed autographed photos and found a really nice one of Brooks Robinson stretched out to make a diving grab. After some negotiations with the owner I now have a 16 x 20 photo framed in my office of Brooks. This goes quite well with my Don Larsen autographed World Series perfect game piece and of course the many bits from Arsenal. Soon my office will be a man cave.

All of this got me thinking about third basemen and fantasy baseball. Brooks was regarded as the greatest fielding third baseman of all time but in fantasy no one really cares about that. Since this is my blog and I can roam from topic to topic all I want I figured I’d list 2 third basemen I’m up on and 2 I’m down on.

This is about guys performing above or below their price. Obviously if given the choice I’m going Miggy, Longo, Beltre but this isn’t about that.

2 I’m Up On:

Lonnie Chisenhall:

Chisenhall has been one of the Indians top prospects for a few years now and is pencilled in as their starting 3B this year. He was a first round draft choice in 2008 and would have gone higher had he not been kicked out of his program in 2007 for stealing cash and computers. That there is proof I do research as I had no idea about that until now.

I don’t necessarily think he’ll light the world on fire but Rotoworld has him at $7 and ESPN at $5 which is cheap. Last year in 260 ABs between 2 levels he hit 8 home runs and now that he’s healthy and a year older it’s reasonable to assume 15-16 home runs will follow from 500 ABs. His average needs work and his K/BB ratio is pretty bad but he’s still young and that too should improve. For his career his contact% has hovered around 80% which is good and his walk% around 7% which is fine as well, this combined with a slight uptick in line drives which he saw when he returned after a broken arm means that he should be a reasonably safe bet this year.

With third base being a desert this year a $6 or so investment in Chisenhall could be worth $10 and allow you to spend your money elsewhere.

Jed Lowrie:

This one wouldn’t have been here a few weeks ago when I did my auction but it looks like he’s the A’s 3B now so he qualifies. Lowrie was a hyped Red Sox prospect a few years ago who was moved to Houston in a package for Mark Melancon. The big knock of Lowrie is apparent when you look at his at bats for the last few years: 171, 309, and 340. He has trouble staying on the field but he has legitimate 25-30 home run power in that bat if he can stay healthy. His injuries have been a bit fluky though: 119 games lost to a broken and strained wrist, 108 games lost to mono, 52 games to a sore left shoulder and 66 to ankle and thumb sprains. None of these are related so hopefully it was just bad luck.

He makes good contact (81% rate), has a good eye, hits a lot of fly balls, and hits in an improved lineup. Rotoworld has him at $6 and ESPN at $8. He could potentially be worth close to $20 if he stays healthy but even with some DL time a $12-15 season is entirely within reach.

2 I’m Down On:

Will Middlebrooks:

Rotoworld - $15, ESPN - $11 and my beloved Shandler - $21 so why am I down on him? Primarily it’s because he’s young and his K/BB ratio is so bad it leads me to believe his adjustment will be much slower than what people are expecting. Last year he burst onto the scene with 15 hr in only 75 games. Who doesn’t want a 30 hr third basemen? Lost in that is a 24.5% strikeout rate while only walking in 4.5% of his plate appearances. When you strike out that much good pitchers are going to find massive holes in your swing. Furthermore his hr/f% in Boston was 21.4% which is huge. That number was higher than David Ortiz for perspective. Assuming he doesn’t automatically fix the holes in his swing and that his hr/f rate drops into the teens then he could have a big sophomore slump coming.

I think that he’s a fine keeper but growing pains are ahead for him.

Adrian Beltre:

Rotoworld - $26, ESPN - $33

I think he’ll be one of the best third basemen available so don’t take this the wrong way. I just see some warning signs that he won’t be quite as good as what people are expecting. First of all is the lineup. Texas is not as good a team offensively as they were last year. Kinsler has been up and down for a few years and in 3 out of 4 has hit in the .250 range. The one year he was above that he only had 391 AB due to injury. Hamilton has left town and not really been replaced. I can’t see Pierzynski coming anywhere close to what he did last year, Martin is a rookie and although he looks good he could struggle, Cruz is being investigated for steroids in the Braun/ARod sting and that could end very badly for him, etc. All this is to say that the offensive load will fall on his shoulders. Nothing in his numbers indicates a big concern other than last year he had over 600 at bats for the first time since 2006. That led to his best statistical season since the monster year he had in 2004 with the Dodgers. Projecting his numbers over 500 at bats instead of 600 and you’re talking 80 runs, 25-28 hr, 85-90 rbi, and with a .315 average. Great numbers no doubt but projecting off his last year numbers seems foolish.