1st half to 2nd half BABIP anomalies: Butler and Crisp

Billy Butler

1^st half: .31                          2^nd half: .37

What Happened?

Butler went from being a very solid but unspectacular first base option in the first half to being in the elite of first basemen in the second half. This was driven by a BABIP of .37 which is completely unsustainable although there are some encouraging signs when you dig deeper into his numbers. His walk%, contact% and k/bb ratio all remained almost the same between the two halves with is good. He continued his career norm as a lefty killer by hitting .370 in the first half against them to .302 in the second half which is in line with his .320 average vs lefties. He hit .272 vs righties in the first half up to .335 in the second which offset the drop vs lefties.

The biggest driver of the BABIP increase and overall value increase was that his line drive rate increased from 21-26% while his ground ball rate dropped and his fly ball rate dropped from 31-27%. The line drive rates mark a career high but as a ‘professional hitter’ who is 27 years old he might just be squaring up the ball better. His hr/f% dropped from 22% to 18% in conjunction with the fly ball drop but his home runs only dropped from 16-13 which is encouraging. A note of caution is that he doubled his career rate for hr/f last year while also posting the fewest fly balls he’s had in a year. If that hr/f ratio regresses to his career average then he’s more of a 20 homer guy than the 29 he hit last year. All of that said he’s a great bet to be one of the better first base options available and one you can have confidence in due to his low volatility.

Coco Crisp

1^st half: .25                          2^nd half: .31

What Happened?

This is a bit dicey to be breaking down as Coco seems to always be battling some form of injury and last year was no exception. He had the flu, an inner ear problem, a shoulder issue, hamstring problems and finally pink eye. This makes putting any stock in first half/second half splits a bit silly but I’m going to do it anyway. Like Butler his bb%, ct% and k/bb remained almost identical from the first half to the second so it’s not like he changed his plate approach a whole lot. What changed dramatically was the results. Gb% went from 49-41%, line drive% from 16-23% and his fly ball% stayed essentially the same. Turning ground balls into line drives will always be a positive thing and the numbers bear that out. In only 70 more ABs he more than doubled his runs (20-48), quadrupled his hr (2-9), doubled his rbi (16-30), increased his steals (16-23) and cranked his average (.219 - .289). His first half was worth $8 and his second $31. He saw across the board improvements against both lefties and righties, got the green light more often and took it (33% - 38% - numbers which are exceptionally high) and increased his slugging % from an anemic .286 to a very healthy indeed .513. To put that second half slugging rate in perspective, Cespedes was at .505 for the year and Billy Butler was .510. Of course he’s not going to simply double his second half but it was a fun ride.

What will Coco do this year? I honestly have no idea but I do know it’ll be both frustrating and fun.