Part 2 Continued – Pitching

My goal with pitching is generally broken down as follows:

1 SP - Ace

1 SP - very good pitcher

2 SP – cheap but high K/9, young or otherwise undervalued. Here’s where I’ll take a chance on guys taking ‘the next step’.

1 Closer with a job

2-3 MR – middle relievers with high K/9 AND K/BB ratios. 

I also try to grab the ‘next in line’ guys.

We start 7 pitchers so this would be my starters with one bench. For my bench I like at least 2 and perhaps 3 of my 4 to be pitchers. Some guys go the opposite way and I can’t fault them but I like to maximize my innings pitched through high K/9 and K/BB middle relievers that might get some vulture wins and potentially become closers. This normally ends up with me being near the top in most pitching categories except Wins which I struggle in. The other downside here is that with only 1 bench bat injuries can cripple my lineup so I’m generally much more active in free agency than my competitors. One of my competitors in particular loves multi-position eligible guys and bench bats and each year he has over 100-120 more games played than I do. To make up for this I need to be effective in the games I do play.

I’ll refer you to the ‘How to make a Justin Verlander’ blog I wrote on my philosophy of mixing middle relievers with high strikeout starters to round out my pitching so I won’t explain that here.

As I said earlier I had mapped out my team with either Carlos Santana as my catcher or Ryan Doumit.

With an assumed $20 invested in Santana I had mapped out my pitching as follows (As my first attempt):

P             Scherzer              $30         KEPT

P             Peavy                  $7          KEPT

P             Dickey                 $30

P             Holland                $8

P             Hanrahan             $24

P             Herrera                $2

P             Tillman                 $2

B             Alburqueque        $1

B             Delabar               $1

B             T. Hunter            $1

That totals $106 which I decided was way more than I wanted to invest in pitching. I also came to the conclusion that I wouldn’t touch Hanrahan with a 10’ pole this year.

Next I decided to break down my dollars spent on bats and arms. Since there seemed to be cheap pitching available but I knew I still needed to spend some considering I already had $37 invested in Peavy and Scherzer I broke it down as 180/80. For me this became either 184/70 or 180/74 as I had dealt $6 away to win the Greinke sweepstakes last year.

My second shot at planning my rotation was:

P             Scherzer              $30         KEPT

P             Peavy                  $7           KEPT

P             Madson               $15

P             Holland                $5

P             Floyd                   $7

P             Tillman                 $3

P             Alburqueque        $1

B             Hunter                  $1

B             Uehara                 $1

B             Herrera                $1

That totals $ 71 and other than the exclusion of Dickey I don’t think there’s much difference than to my first shot. Frankly I have more faith in Madson coming off Tommy John than I do in Hanrahan so that’s like free money.

So what did I end up with?

P             Scherzer              $30           KEPT

P             Peavy                  $7             KEPT

P             Veras                  $12

P             Madson               $13

P             Norris                  $2

P             Cook                   $2

P             Tillman                 $3

B             Hunter                 $1

B             Uehara                $1

Total: $71

Obviously that didn’t go as I planned it.

Madson, Tillman, Uehara and Hunter were all guys that I had targeted so I’m fine with them on my team. Ryan Cook I think could very well end up the closer in Oakland and I thought he’d go for more money (Sean Doolittle went for $5 and I’d rather have Cook). Where I potentially dropped the ball is on Veras and Bud Norris.

For reference the $12 I spent on Veras that should have been spent on a starter could have purchased: Buerhle $11 (who doesn’t fit with my philosophy), Holland $12 (this one hurts a bit but I think that’s too much), C Perez (a much better option than Veras and I’m much more down on Pestano this year than last), Romero $11 (who I wouldn’t touch), and Santos $12 (who is a gamble but a decent one).  

I view Veras as likely crap but he could be fine. The thing with closers is you never know. His underlying skills are decent. His K/9 was 10.6 last year which is great, he doesn’t give up a lot of fly balls and he’s got the job in Houston. Even closers on bad teams get saves. His problem is that he walked 5.4 guys per 9 last year which will kill you every time (ironically enough Hanrahan walked 5.4/9 last year too – haha).

Norris has good skills but he walks more guys than you’d want out of a starter and his strand rate could be better. Otherwise he’s got really good skills and someone on Houston will win 12-13 games so why not him?

My problem overall is that I could have too many closers and not enough starters which is only a problem if I don’t make trades. Skill wise I’m happy with the $71 I spent on pitching and I think that I can get more value out of this by dealing a closer. I view Uehara, Cook and Hunter all as potential closers for their teams.