1st half to 2nd half BABIP anomalies: Ackley and Aybar.

For this piece I went through AL players with last names from A – D and looked at their first half to second half BABIP splits for any large anomalies. For now I'm just doing the first two names that jumped out at me. Many people don’t put stock in first half to second half splits but I think that at the very least it helps explain players that look better in our minds than they perhaps really are or helps explain players that seemingly had a different skills approach that might mean better production in this coming year.

I’ll choose some stats to support my argument but for most of these guys I’ll have looked at other numbers I don’t put down here simply because it would be redundant.

Dustin Ackley:

First Half: .30                      Second Half: .23

What Happened?

Ackley went from hitting .241 in the first half to .211 in the second. This was driven by a complete drop off against righties from .246 (which is bad) to .183 (which is awful). His numbers against lefties actually increased in the second half to cushion this drop. His walk% dropped from 10-7% while his contact% increased from 77-82%. What this means is that he started putting his bat on the ball more often than working an at bat. The result was a worse K/BB ratio than in the first half and a decrease in line drives with an uptick in fly balls. Line drives are much more likely to be hits than fly balls so we can see the drop right there.

He doubled his home runs from 4 to 8 but it cost him nearly everywhere else. He still had a low rate of HR/Fly from 5-8%. He’s young and this is too small of a sample size to put much stock in but nothing here points to a big step forward coming. His plate discipline eroded and the result wasn’t great in the power department. Also of note is that his SB success rate dropped from 88% to 75%. Still a decent success rate but he might not get the green light as much if that drops anymore.

Erick Aybar:

1^st half: .29                          2^nd half: .35

What Happened?

Across the board improvements to Aybar make him look like he’s becoming an elite option especially hitting in that lineup. But his average vs lefties went from .295 to .390 which has got to be unsustainable especially with a career avg of .291 vs lefties. In 2011 he hit .216 against them further illustrating how crazy that .390 is. He saw a similar jump vs righties from .238 to .309 which is closer to his career .285 mark. His contact% stayed similar and remains high (around 88%) which points to a good batting average going forward. The biggest driver of the improvements from the first half to the second half are that his ground ball% dropped from 55 - 50% while his line drive% jumped from 16 – 21%. His hr/f rate jumped from 2%!!!!! To 11% which is waaay over his career 6% rate. Nothing in his past points to such a huge jump in power so temper expectations going forward. The average is real and so is the speed and the runs will follow. One thing to keep an eye on early is how often he gets the green light. First half last year he went 10% of the time he had an open base and 27% in the second half. That’s a crazy difference and explains the jump in bags from 5-15. His success rate remained at 83% so if he can keep the rate around there he’ll be just fine. Of course hitting in front of Pujols, Trumbo, Hamilton et al might mean he sees a red light more often than not. We’ll see.