We've Moved!

We've finally moved to our new home at www.theshallowfly.wordpress.com. Once I pony up it'll just be theshallowfly.com but for now you'll have to type in the wordpress bit. It's a much better website and we're excited about it. Take a look.

John and Eric

New and Improved Site

Dearest loyal reader,

We here at The Shallow Fly endeavor to provide you with the finest fantasy baseball content that John can dream up in a 45 minute window. Of late we have found that our web platform has been letting us down. After a consultation with a graphic designer last night we have the beginning of a brand new web page that we think will vastly improve upon this webpage that looks like it was put together by some guy with absolutely no knowledge of how to do this sort of thing. 

There will be another writer joining the page hopefully today with his first post which I'm excited about. We now have a twitter account and we have a bunch of ideas on how to make this site more fun to visit.  

Please have some patience while we work through the kinks, we think it’ll be worth it. 

Baseball Stat of the Day

This is amazing:

there have been more perfect games than Votto infield flies since 2009.

AL Third Basemen Opinion

For my birthday a few weeks ago my lovely girlfriend asked me what I wanted and as usual I could think of nothing. After racking my brains she asked me about memorabilia because I’m always going on about things I want signed and one of the great regrets I have in life is leaving my entire collection at the top of a closet in an apartment I moved out of years ago. In there were autographed balls from Ted Williams, Brooks Robinson and Don Mattingly (who was my favourite player as a kid). Every now and again I still feel a pang of regret about leaving that stuff there, especially the Williams ball. So off we went to a memorabilia store downtown where I found an awesome Ted Williams piece that was way too expensive and a really nice Stan Musial piece that I would love to own as well but was out of my budget. As we were about to leave I decided to look through the unframed autographed photos and found a really nice one of Brooks Robinson stretched out to make a diving grab. After some negotiations with the owner I now have a 16 x 20 photo framed in my office of Brooks. This goes quite well with my Don Larsen autographed World Series perfect game piece and of course the many bits from Arsenal. Soon my office will be a man cave.

All of this got me thinking about third basemen and fantasy baseball. Brooks was regarded as the greatest fielding third baseman of all time but in fantasy no one really cares about that. Since this is my blog and I can roam from topic to topic all I want I figured I’d list 2 third basemen I’m up on and 2 I’m down on.

This is about guys performing above or below their price. Obviously if given the choice I’m going Miggy, Longo, Beltre but this isn’t about that.

2 I’m Up On:

Lonnie Chisenhall:

Chisenhall has been one of the Indians top prospects for a few years now and is pencilled in as their starting 3B this year. He was a first round draft choice in 2008 and would have gone higher had he not been kicked out of his program in 2007 for stealing cash and computers. That there is proof I do research as I had no idea about that until now.

I don’t necessarily think he’ll light the world on fire but Rotoworld has him at $7 and ESPN at $5 which is cheap. Last year in 260 ABs between 2 levels he hit 8 home runs and now that he’s healthy and a year older it’s reasonable to assume 15-16 home runs will follow from 500 ABs. His average needs work and his K/BB ratio is pretty bad but he’s still young and that too should improve. For his career his contact% has hovered around 80% which is good and his walk% around 7% which is fine as well, this combined with a slight uptick in line drives which he saw when he returned after a broken arm means that he should be a reasonably safe bet this year.

With third base being a desert this year a $6 or so investment in Chisenhall could be worth $10 and allow you to spend your money elsewhere.

Jed Lowrie:

This one wouldn’t have been here a few weeks ago when I did my auction but it looks like he’s the A’s 3B now so he qualifies. Lowrie was a hyped Red Sox prospect a few years ago who was moved to Houston in a package for Mark Melancon. The big knock of Lowrie is apparent when you look at his at bats for the last few years: 171, 309, and 340. He has trouble staying on the field but he has legitimate 25-30 home run power in that bat if he can stay healthy. His injuries have been a bit fluky though: 119 games lost to a broken and strained wrist, 108 games lost to mono, 52 games to a sore left shoulder and 66 to ankle and thumb sprains. None of these are related so hopefully it was just bad luck.

He makes good contact (81% rate), has a good eye, hits a lot of fly balls, and hits in an improved lineup. Rotoworld has him at $6 and ESPN at $8. He could potentially be worth close to $20 if he stays healthy but even with some DL time a $12-15 season is entirely within reach.

2 I’m Down On:

Will Middlebrooks:

Rotoworld - $15, ESPN - $11 and my beloved Shandler - $21 so why am I down on him? Primarily it’s because he’s young and his K/BB ratio is so bad it leads me to believe his adjustment will be much slower than what people are expecting. Last year he burst onto the scene with 15 hr in only 75 games. Who doesn’t want a 30 hr third basemen? Lost in that is a 24.5% strikeout rate while only walking in 4.5% of his plate appearances. When you strike out that much good pitchers are going to find massive holes in your swing. Furthermore his hr/f% in Boston was 21.4% which is huge. That number was higher than David Ortiz for perspective. Assuming he doesn’t automatically fix the holes in his swing and that his hr/f rate drops into the teens then he could have a big sophomore slump coming.

I think that he’s a fine keeper but growing pains are ahead for him.

Adrian Beltre:

Rotoworld - $26, ESPN - $33

I think he’ll be one of the best third basemen available so don’t take this the wrong way. I just see some warning signs that he won’t be quite as good as what people are expecting. First of all is the lineup. Texas is not as good a team offensively as they were last year. Kinsler has been up and down for a few years and in 3 out of 4 has hit in the .250 range. The one year he was above that he only had 391 AB due to injury. Hamilton has left town and not really been replaced. I can’t see Pierzynski coming anywhere close to what he did last year, Martin is a rookie and although he looks good he could struggle, Cruz is being investigated for steroids in the Braun/ARod sting and that could end very badly for him, etc. All this is to say that the offensive load will fall on his shoulders. Nothing in his numbers indicates a big concern other than last year he had over 600 at bats for the first time since 2006. That led to his best statistical season since the monster year he had in 2004 with the Dodgers. Projecting his numbers over 500 at bats instead of 600 and you’re talking 80 runs, 25-28 hr, 85-90 rbi, and with a .315 average. Great numbers no doubt but projecting off his last year numbers seems foolish. 

Sports Illustrated Fantasy

I just felt like I had to say something here. Every single time I'm bored enough to actually click on that terrible fantasy section I'm both amused and appalled. It has got to be the worst fantasy baseball site provided by a respected sports source of all time. With very few exceptions I disagree with what they say or what they say is so obvious that it doesn't bear mentioning at all.

Seriously it's ridiculous.

They label Chris Sale as a "do-not-draft arm". In what universe is Sale undraftable?

Other gems are:

R.A. Dickey - "Breakthroughs just don't happen late in your 30s". Really? Because how many other guys without a Ulnar Collateral Ligament have gone to the minors, completely learned a new pitch, and THEN PROCEEDED TO THROW A KNUCKLEBALL OVER 80 MPH? Oh right. The answer is none.

Encarnacion - while criticizing his bat, "Watch for injuries and errors - some of the reasons he didn't break out until age 29". Last year after moving to first base part time he made 3 errors in 66 games started for a .995 fielding percentage. Also what the fuck does this have to do with his bat? Will they bench him? Will they move him back to third? No and No. Injuries are always a concern but don't bring up his fielding here.

Crisp - "the A's are not a team that values the stolen base". Coco Crisp has gotten the green light significantly more as a member of the Oakland A's than he did as a member of Boston or KC. In fact it's not even close. Here are his last 6 years of stolen base attempt % (basically how often he goes with a bag open in front of him) -

Year	Team	%
2007	Boston	23
2008	Boston	25
2009	KC	28
2010	Oak	40
2011	Oak	41
2012	Oak	36

so tell me again how they suppress his running? 

I could go on and on but they make me nuts. It's like they don't do research or something. 

Part 2 Continued – Pitching

My goal with pitching is generally broken down as follows:

1 SP - Ace

1 SP - very good pitcher

2 SP – cheap but high K/9, young or otherwise undervalued. Here’s where I’ll take a chance on guys taking ‘the next step’.

1 Closer with a job

2-3 MR – middle relievers with high K/9 AND K/BB ratios. 

I also try to grab the ‘next in line’ guys.

We start 7 pitchers so this would be my starters with one bench. For my bench I like at least 2 and perhaps 3 of my 4 to be pitchers. Some guys go the opposite way and I can’t fault them but I like to maximize my innings pitched through high K/9 and K/BB middle relievers that might get some vulture wins and potentially become closers. This normally ends up with me being near the top in most pitching categories except Wins which I struggle in. The other downside here is that with only 1 bench bat injuries can cripple my lineup so I’m generally much more active in free agency than my competitors. One of my competitors in particular loves multi-position eligible guys and bench bats and each year he has over 100-120 more games played than I do. To make up for this I need to be effective in the games I do play.

I’ll refer you to the ‘How to make a Justin Verlander’ blog I wrote on my philosophy of mixing middle relievers with high strikeout starters to round out my pitching so I won’t explain that here.

As I said earlier I had mapped out my team with either Carlos Santana as my catcher or Ryan Doumit.

With an assumed $20 invested in Santana I had mapped out my pitching as follows (As my first attempt):

P             Scherzer              $30         KEPT

P             Peavy                  $7          KEPT

P             Dickey                 $30

P             Holland                $8

P             Hanrahan             $24

P             Herrera                $2

P             Tillman                 $2

B             Alburqueque        $1

B             Delabar               $1

B             T. Hunter            $1

That totals $106 which I decided was way more than I wanted to invest in pitching. I also came to the conclusion that I wouldn’t touch Hanrahan with a 10’ pole this year.

Next I decided to break down my dollars spent on bats and arms. Since there seemed to be cheap pitching available but I knew I still needed to spend some considering I already had $37 invested in Peavy and Scherzer I broke it down as 180/80. For me this became either 184/70 or 180/74 as I had dealt $6 away to win the Greinke sweepstakes last year.

My second shot at planning my rotation was:

P             Scherzer              $30         KEPT

P             Peavy                  $7           KEPT

P             Madson               $15

P             Holland                $5

P             Floyd                   $7

P             Tillman                 $3

P             Alburqueque        $1

B             Hunter                  $1

B             Uehara                 $1

B             Herrera                $1

That totals $ 71 and other than the exclusion of Dickey I don’t think there’s much difference than to my first shot. Frankly I have more faith in Madson coming off Tommy John than I do in Hanrahan so that’s like free money.

So what did I end up with?

P             Scherzer              $30           KEPT

P             Peavy                  $7             KEPT

P             Veras                  $12

P             Madson               $13

P             Norris                  $2

P             Cook                   $2

P             Tillman                 $3

B             Hunter                 $1

B             Uehara                $1

Total: $71

Obviously that didn’t go as I planned it.

Madson, Tillman, Uehara and Hunter were all guys that I had targeted so I’m fine with them on my team. Ryan Cook I think could very well end up the closer in Oakland and I thought he’d go for more money (Sean Doolittle went for $5 and I’d rather have Cook). Where I potentially dropped the ball is on Veras and Bud Norris.

For reference the $12 I spent on Veras that should have been spent on a starter could have purchased: Buerhle $11 (who doesn’t fit with my philosophy), Holland $12 (this one hurts a bit but I think that’s too much), C Perez (a much better option than Veras and I’m much more down on Pestano this year than last), Romero $11 (who I wouldn’t touch), and Santos $12 (who is a gamble but a decent one).  

I view Veras as likely crap but he could be fine. The thing with closers is you never know. His underlying skills are decent. His K/9 was 10.6 last year which is great, he doesn’t give up a lot of fly balls and he’s got the job in Houston. Even closers on bad teams get saves. His problem is that he walked 5.4 guys per 9 last year which will kill you every time (ironically enough Hanrahan walked 5.4/9 last year too – haha).

Norris has good skills but he walks more guys than you’d want out of a starter and his strand rate could be better. Otherwise he’s got really good skills and someone on Houston will win 12-13 games so why not him?

My problem overall is that I could have too many closers and not enough starters which is only a problem if I don’t make trades. Skill wise I’m happy with the $71 I spent on pitching and I think that I can get more value out of this by dealing a closer. I view Uehara, Cook and Hunter all as potential closers for their teams. 

1st half to 2nd half BABIP anomalies: Butler and Crisp

Billy Butler

1^st half: .31                          2^nd half: .37

What Happened?

Butler went from being a very solid but unspectacular first base option in the first half to being in the elite of first basemen in the second half. This was driven by a BABIP of .37 which is completely unsustainable although there are some encouraging signs when you dig deeper into his numbers. His walk%, contact% and k/bb ratio all remained almost the same between the two halves with is good. He continued his career norm as a lefty killer by hitting .370 in the first half against them to .302 in the second half which is in line with his .320 average vs lefties. He hit .272 vs righties in the first half up to .335 in the second which offset the drop vs lefties.

The biggest driver of the BABIP increase and overall value increase was that his line drive rate increased from 21-26% while his ground ball rate dropped and his fly ball rate dropped from 31-27%. The line drive rates mark a career high but as a ‘professional hitter’ who is 27 years old he might just be squaring up the ball better. His hr/f% dropped from 22% to 18% in conjunction with the fly ball drop but his home runs only dropped from 16-13 which is encouraging. A note of caution is that he doubled his career rate for hr/f last year while also posting the fewest fly balls he’s had in a year. If that hr/f ratio regresses to his career average then he’s more of a 20 homer guy than the 29 he hit last year. All of that said he’s a great bet to be one of the better first base options available and one you can have confidence in due to his low volatility.

Coco Crisp

1^st half: .25                          2^nd half: .31

What Happened?

This is a bit dicey to be breaking down as Coco seems to always be battling some form of injury and last year was no exception. He had the flu, an inner ear problem, a shoulder issue, hamstring problems and finally pink eye. This makes putting any stock in first half/second half splits a bit silly but I’m going to do it anyway. Like Butler his bb%, ct% and k/bb remained almost identical from the first half to the second so it’s not like he changed his plate approach a whole lot. What changed dramatically was the results. Gb% went from 49-41%, line drive% from 16-23% and his fly ball% stayed essentially the same. Turning ground balls into line drives will always be a positive thing and the numbers bear that out. In only 70 more ABs he more than doubled his runs (20-48), quadrupled his hr (2-9), doubled his rbi (16-30), increased his steals (16-23) and cranked his average (.219 - .289). His first half was worth $8 and his second $31. He saw across the board improvements against both lefties and righties, got the green light more often and took it (33% - 38% - numbers which are exceptionally high) and increased his slugging % from an anemic .286 to a very healthy indeed .513. To put that second half slugging rate in perspective, Cespedes was at .505 for the year and Billy Butler was .510. Of course he’s not going to simply double his second half but it was a fun ride.

What will Coco do this year? I honestly have no idea but I do know it’ll be both frustrating and fun.